Financial Persona – Bank Balance Trajectories

25 real users sampled from 5 financial personas. Each chart shows the pay period where the user's cash flow most clearly matches their persona pattern (not necessarily the most recent cycle). Cashout events are marked on the chart as triangles and detailed in the side panel.

Persona	Sample Count (1/32)	Estimated Full Count	% of Classified	Profile
In the Red	15,067	~482,000	33.0%	Frequently negative balance; overdrafts in 3+ pay periods
Tightrope Walkers	6,897	~221,000	15.1%	Median balance near $0–$150; rely heavily on cashouts
Roller Coasters	5,894	~189,000	12.9%	Wild swings (σ > $300), dip below $200, rarely go negative
Payday Surfers	3,947	~126,000	8.6%	Balance peaks after payday then steadily drains near $0
Steady Savers	3,452	~110,000	7.6%	Min balance stays above $200 across nearly all pay periods
Unclassified	10,899	~349,000	23.8%	Does not clearly match any single pattern

Persona	Jan Cohort	Feb Ret %	Mar Ret %	Feb→Mar Δ
Tightrope Walkers	8,084	90.4%	81.8%	-8.6pp
Roller Coasters	5,880	76.4%	70.9%	-5.5pp
Payday Surfers	4,429	72.1%	65.9%	-6.2pp
Steady Savers	3,197	68.9%	64.3%	-4.6pp
In the Red	18,183	64.8%	60.0%	-4.8pp

Data Attribution Logic

Step 0 — Eligible Population

Start with users who logged in within the last 30 days (main_prod.dbo.logindetails), then exclude:

Dead bank connection — both is_upbc_active and is_bfpbc_active = false.
Stale/dormant balance — same non-zero value for 10+ consecutive days.

Step 1 — Cycle Selection for Visualization

Only weekly/biweekly cycles (5–16 days) from earningscycle are considered — monthly and anomalous long cycles are excluded. For each sampled user, we select the most recent completed cycle that best matches their persona (not necessarily the latest cycle). Per-cycle persona matching rules:

In the Red: days_negative ≥ 2
Tightrope Walkers: median_bal between -$50 and $150 AND ≥1 cashout
Roller Coasters: std_bal > $300 AND min_bal < $200 AND days_negative ≤ 1
Payday Surfers: max_bal ≥ $500 AND min_bal < $50 AND avg_bal between $50–$400
Steady Savers: min_bal ≥ $200

Step 2 — Classification Rules (Priority Order, across last 5 cycles)

1. In the Red

cycles_2plus_neg ≥ 3 OR cycles_deep_neg ≥ 3

2. Tightrope Walkers

cycles_tight_median ≥ 3 AND avg_cashouts ≥ 2

3. Roller Coasters

cycles_volatile_dip ≥ 2 AND cycles_any_negative ≤ 1

4. Payday Surfers

cycles_surfer ≥ 2 AND cycles_min_above_200 < MIN(4, num_cycles)

5. Steady Savers

cycles_min_above_200 ≥ MIN(4, num_cycles)

Data Sources

Purpose	Table
Login activity	`main_prod.dbo.logindetails`
Bank connection	`main_prod.bank_dm.fact_user_bank_connection`
Daily balance	`main_prod.bank_balance.user_bank_balance`
Pay periods	`main_prod.earnings.earningscycle`
Cashouts	`main_prod.finance_dm.fact_transactions_all`